Wednesday, October 16, 2019
A physical description of an object. not emotional, imaginative or Essay
A physical description of an object. not emotional, imaginative or interpretive - Essay Example The outside cover can be hard bound or just a sturdy paper that extends from its cover to its back. Its purpose is to indicate the title of the book and its corresponding pictures and designs to make the book appealing to its readers. It also serves as a protection that would prevent the contents of the book from being damaged which are composed of thinner leaves of paper where the printed words are written. The physical description of a book are the following, its shape typically rectangle. There are however other variations of which could be square, sometimes oblong. Its inner leaves are made up of thin leaves of papers where the printed contents are written. Its contents can be made up of solely of words or pictures, charts, illustrations or any visual elements that would help the readers understand the book better. Its contents are also divided into chapters to organize the ideas of the book. The wonder of a book is in its contents. When used properly, a book is a very powerful tool that could expand the mind and horizon of an individual that would bring about great and revolutionary ideas. It can also be used as a tool to improve oneself and to convey ideas and instructions. A book maybe just a bound of paper with printed word on its pages but it is the one of the most important if not the most important thing that mankind has created because it has expanded his or her mind that help create other things that made the world a better
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Readers response Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1
Readers response - Essay Example The term â€Å"coy†informs the reader that the young woman is not an easy catch. In other words, she is not easily carried away. Besides suggesting that the word â€Å"coy†could mean a â€Å"sweetheart â€Å" or a â€Å"lover†, it could also be the equivalent for a lady, manager or a courtesan. The lady in â€Å"To His Coy Mistress†plays a kind of a cat and mouse game with her suitor in being shy and artfully demure and at the same time being playfully hesitant. She is well aware that the young man’s motivation is more of a carnal desire for her than true love. He urges her time and again to take advantage of the moment saying â€Å"sport us while we may†telling her that dallying was not a good idea because youth passes quickly. He presses his case on telling her that the luxury of time is not with them for â€Å"time’s winged chariot is ever racing along’ and before they realize it, youth would have passed them by and only their graves would remain. From the lady’s point of view, it is understood that her lover is not motivated by true love but by sheer carnal desire for her. She doesn’t seem to want to succumb to his charms and passion. Though her lover seems impatient and desperate, yet she does not relent. Though the lover suggests that time and their youth is passing them by and they should take advantage and enjoy the pleasure of each other presently, yet she stalls on this fact and does not want to give into his passions. The silent female in this poem tries to be quite tolerant to her suitor and does not encourage his advances. She seems to be somewhat unhappy and dejected by the fact that his key motivation behind his advances is not that of love but of lust or carnal desire and passion. She would rather prefer that his desire for her would be centered on pure love than on fleeting passions. This beautiful poem by Andrew Marvell – â€Å"To His Coy Mistress†has both crude and shocking imagery and gross
Monday, October 14, 2019
Simple pendulum experiment Essay Example for Free
Simple pendulum experiment Essay A string measured to be over 1 meter, so as when its length was being adjusted there was enough string to pull on from between the wooden blocks, was tied to a bob. The end of the string was then placed between two wooden blocks and adjusted so that the length of the pendulum was 1 meter. The wood blocks were then placed in the clamp and the grip was tightened. The pendulum suspension was made sure to be friction-free so that the wood blocks could provide a point of suspension for the string. The angle at which the pendulum is drawn out to should be small. The smaller the angle, the closer the harmonic motion it will behave because the restoring force is acting tangent to the arc the pendulum moves through instead of being outside of it. The time taken for 20 oscillations with the length of the pendulum being 1 meter was recorded but was also repeated for accuracy. The two times were averaged and the result was divided by 20 so as to find the time for one oscillation which was then squared. The length of the pendulum was decreased by 0. 1 m each time. The pendulum should swing freely without hitting anything. A table was drawn to record the results and from this a graph was plot. Results: Table showing the time taken for 20 oscillations for each length. Time for 20 oscillations l/m t1/s t2/s AverageGradient = g g= gradient  g = 0. 24ms-2  39. 48 = 9. 79 ms-2 Conclusion: Using a simple pendulum, the acceleration due to gravity was concluded to be 9. 79 ms-2.
Sunday, October 13, 2019
The beliefs of Childrens Learning
The beliefs of Childrens Learning Identifying the beliefs of Childrens Learning, Development, and the Social Influences that shaped them. A childs learning and development begins from the moment they are born, the early years from birth to five are an important milestone in a persons life, what a child experiences in the early years has a major impact on their future chances in life. A safe, secure and happy childhood is important in its own right. We can shape a childs learning from an early age, children learn through experience and adult involvement, therefore interaction with babies and young children is fundamentally important, it helps to build ideas, creates thinking and helps them develop as learners. Babies are born with an interest in people and a drive to find out about their world. Observing and assessing babies and young children is an important basis in their learning and development. Watching children learn can open our eyes to the capacity of how they learn (Pugh, 2001, p. 66), and this shows us the i mportance of these first few years in a childs life. Over the decades early education, policies and practices have seen significant changes. We still use many of the earlier theories and methods through the Early Years Foundation Stage (EYFS) in our early education settings today. The EYFS is part of a ten year Childcare Strategy introduced in 2008, it relates to the Childcare Act 2006, and its aim is to give young children the best start in life, it sets standards to enable early years providers to implement the rich and personalised experience many parents give their children at home. It provides legal requirements relating to learning, development, assessments and welfare. The EYFS principles which guide all practitioners consists of four themes; a Unique Child, Positive Relationships, Enabling Environments, Learning And Development. It implies that all children from birth to five will acquire the same skills and knowledge in preparation for school while at the same time recognising that all children are individuals that require ind ividual learning strategies. The construction of early education and care of children and young people dates back many years, as early as the 17th century. Friedrich Froebel a major theorist was born in 1782 in Thuringia what is now Germany and was well known for saying play is a childs work, he formulated the idea of kindergarten meaning childrens garden as a means of educating young children. Play and the outdoor environment were important in Froebelian kindergartens. His approach emphasized that children are able to develop their capacity for learning through play, and that active learning is essential with guidance and appropriate direction. He believed that training of workers within the early years was essential, and the importance of parents as partners in the education of young children. The influence of Froebels methods are well established in early years settings to date, his work was one of the theories that made the basis of early education. Many recent theorists based t heir work on these early findings, and say, he was ahead of his time as one of the EYFS themes and commitments, of today states active learning. Active learning it is implemented through the learning and development principle of the EYFS, it provides physical and mental involvement, decision-making and personalised learning, and it occurs when children are keen to learn and are interested in finding things out for themselves. Play is a dynamic process that develops and changes, it provides children with opportunities for developing cognitive, social, emotional and physical skills. Froebelian kindergartens were seen to be middle class; despite this his methods were adapted for use with disadvantaged children and families within developing 20th century nursery and infant schools. (Pound, 2008, p. 16). The first nursery school opened in Scotland in1816 by Robert Owen(1771-1858), he was a mill owner who refused to employ children less than 10 years of age, he believed that education should be a common right for all children, and that children are passive, contrived and by due preparation and accurate attention can be formed into any human character. He managed their behaviour through kindness, which in the19th century was unusual, children as young as 2 years attended his school. The opening of his nursery school influenced changing attitudes on child labour, and set the basis of early education for young children. The start of the curriculum method was one of Owenss ideas, his vision on education-inspired generations of activist; he recognised the link between social welfare and early education this is an important part of practice in modern day settings. His commitments to education were radical as were his ideas on the importance of equality, although his policies were a bold ste p forward, he was criticised as being rooted in his desire for profit. (Pound, 2008, p. 13) In the UK the development of early education was very slow compared to Europe, it was In 1870 that publicly funded education became compulsory for children age 5, the need to understand these early childhood services is important as they laid down the foundations of our education system (Pugh, 2001, p. 8) During the 1960s the voluntary playgroup movement emerged. A letter sent to the Guardian by Belle Tutaev, a young mother of a four-year-old expressing concern to the lack of appropriate nursery provision within our education system. For many years the main means of early education was state primary schools, and this was aimed at children over 5 years, after campaigning to the authorities to no avail she opened her own playgroup, this progressed and by the seventies playgroups became a recognised form of pre-school provision. Over the next 2 decades the changing family patterns and employment patterns meant early years provision were a much needed source, this saw the growth of private nurseries. Only after a review in 1988 on early childhood and education services, (The Education Reform Act) did the government realise there was a growing problem. It found flaws, in uncoordinated services, which varied between different parts of the country, compared to the rest of Europe there were low levels of public funding. It had different services ran by a diversity of different organisations, this meant a wide range of clients used them, all with different aims and purposes. The education system needed the government to intervene. A number of national reports was to be published, one of them the Rumbold report published in 1990, expressed concerns about education and the lack of access to Early Years services. It highlighted the need for the development of good quality provision in the early years, and believed it to be vital that all that work, or are involved with young children recognise the importance of their educational role and fulfil it. She urged those who make provision recognise the growing demand for and the expansion of high quality services to meet children and parents needs (rumbold, 1990). The report also highlighted the way in which young children learn are as important as what they learn, and argued against the introduction of formal learning. At the time, this report was ignored but it is now used as a basis for best practice in todays Early Years settings. The establishment of the Early Childhood Education forum in 1993 meant bringing together all national agencies working in the field, (Pugh, 2001, p. 11) it clarified that an early years policy is needed, and an expansion in services, the forum gathered strength with over 45 national organisations by 1998. Its aims were to champion childrens rights and entitlements, support the training development and education of early childhood practitioners, and all those who work with children and their families. The government took action and in 1995, funding for the education of 4 year olds was introduced this was in the form of vouchers that could be redeemed in private, voluntary, or local authority nurseries, the vouchers were extremely criticised at the time and was abolished in 1997 when Labour Government was elected. The election of the Labour Government brought big changes in the way our whole Education System was run, especially Early Education; its key issue is to eradicate child poverty, and provide more family friendly policies and childrens centres. The Sure Start initiative, launched in 1999 under the National Childcare Strategy plays a major role in doing this, by helping families in local communities of need with children under 4years old. The government pledged 1.4 billion pounds over 6 years. This meant that parents had access to a multi agency of services within the Sure Start Childrens Centres. They are now a key influence within our communities helping children, families and society, by learning and developing life skills in the early years so that young children grow up to be happy, healthy and are able to achieve their goals in life. The centres are at the Heart of the Every Child Matters Change for Children 2004. The green paper Every Child Matters was published in 2003, in response to a report by Lord Laming in 2001, into the death of Victoria Climbie. Victoria was a young girl who was horrifically abused, tortured and killed by her great aunt, Marie-Therese Kouao and partner Carl Manning; they were the people who were supposed to be caring for her. Shameful failings within a number of systems meant on 12 occasions over 10 months the chances to save Victoria were missed. Evidence from this Inquiry demonstrated the dangers of staff from different agencies not fulfilling their separate and distinctive responsibilities. The death of Victoria showed a fundamental need for an integrated service that would be part of a political agenda for many years, despite the Children Act 1989 provisions, child protection strategies and services stayed within the social service system, and the level of communication and co-operation between these and other services in health and education were variable. The Ev ery Child Matters agenda is recognised by five outcomes; be healthy, stay safe, enjoy and achieve, make a positive contribution, and achieve economic wellbeing; these outcomes are a universal ambition for the government, and form a strong basis for the EYFS curriculum used in Early Education Settings to date. The transfer of responsibility for children under 8-years-old were made from the Department of Health, to the Department of Education and Skills and from 2001, an integrated inspection service was introduced, bringing together all the services, enabling multi-agency working, which was an important step forward. The Early Years Development and Childcare Partnership in local authorities were also introduced, helping to increase levels of provision in Childcare. Working in partnership with the Local Education Authority, each authority completed an audit, with a plan to reach the governments targets for early education places for all 3- and-4year-olds. This was made easier in the change of policy earlier, that allowed non maintained sectors to apply for nursery grants, children in private day nurseries, pre-schools and some childminders could now access their free half-day nursery provision. In this way the strategy started to tackle the long-term split between Early Years education serv ices and the childcare services. (Macelod- Brundenell,and Kay 2nd edition 2008 pg 352 ). It has been without doubt that Early Education has come a long way since Froebel in the 17th century, and the opening of Owens nursery school in 1816, but not many things have changed, it was evident then that children learn through play and exploration, and early learning is important in the first five years. Maybe many generations of children have missed out the chances given to young children of today. The EYFS has been an important milestone for early education and young children, and is now the way forward in preparing a child for school, but its existance is still in the primary stages, and many small nursery settings may find adapting to these changes and sustaining them quiet difficult as the standards and welfare requirements set are extremly high.
Saturday, October 12, 2019
Gastric Bypass :: essays research papers
Gastric Bypass More than 40,000 people a year are so desperate to lose weight they turn to the controversial, sometimes life-threatening surgery such as Gastric Bypass. I will be explaining what the surgery entitles, disadvantages vs. advantages. And most important, is Gastric bypass surgery the right choice when considering the risks.                    The most common form of â€Å"stomach stapling†is gastric bypass. In this procedure, a small pouch is formed in the stomach and stapled shut. The small intestine is then cut and stapled onto the pouch, shrinking the stomach’s ability to take in food. The technique involves removing a section of the stomach and rearranging the small bowel to divert bile and pancreatic secretions away from the food stream. Fats and starches flow through without being absorbed. In order to be a candidate for the surgery, patients must be considered morbidly obese or at least 100 pounds overwei ght. Before an individual gets the go-ahead, he or she meets with doctors and psychologists to rule out all other ways of help.                                                   Surgery may sound like the best option for a morbidly overweight person, but a small figure comes at a high price. There are health risks and the side effects can be fatal. Three people will die during every 1,000 procedures, according to the ASBS. Let me tell you about more disadvantages. More than one-third of obese patients who have gastric surgery develop gallstones. Nearly one in three develop nutritional deficiencies. Patients could also be at risk for anemia, osteoporosis and metabolic bone disease. However, these side effects can be avoided with the proper amount of vitamin and mineral supplements. Up to 20 percent of patients who undergo the operation will require follow-up surgeries to correct complications. Common problems include abdominal hernias, breakdown of the staple line and stretched stomach outlets. There’s rapid regain of weight and all sorts of medical problems. From vitamin deficiencies to constant illness, stomach upsets, diarrhea, fatigue and horrible wound infections. Many people don’t want to admit they’ve had problems because they’re so happy to be thin; â€Å"People who have had the surgery the past couple of years are in a honeymoon state†, states Guthrie, Catherine. The author of â€Å"Bariatric Surgery: A Radical Obesity Fix. They is so thrilled to be thin. They believe being thin at all costs is more important than their own lives. Even if the patients have problems                                                  although these are some complications, most patients undergo only one surgery and there's an 85 percent success rate. Gastric Bypass :: essays research papers Gastric Bypass More than 40,000 people a year are so desperate to lose weight they turn to the controversial, sometimes life-threatening surgery such as Gastric Bypass. I will be explaining what the surgery entitles, disadvantages vs. advantages. And most important, is Gastric bypass surgery the right choice when considering the risks.                    The most common form of â€Å"stomach stapling†is gastric bypass. In this procedure, a small pouch is formed in the stomach and stapled shut. The small intestine is then cut and stapled onto the pouch, shrinking the stomach’s ability to take in food. The technique involves removing a section of the stomach and rearranging the small bowel to divert bile and pancreatic secretions away from the food stream. Fats and starches flow through without being absorbed. In order to be a candidate for the surgery, patients must be considered morbidly obese or at least 100 pounds overwei ght. Before an individual gets the go-ahead, he or she meets with doctors and psychologists to rule out all other ways of help.                                                   Surgery may sound like the best option for a morbidly overweight person, but a small figure comes at a high price. There are health risks and the side effects can be fatal. Three people will die during every 1,000 procedures, according to the ASBS. Let me tell you about more disadvantages. More than one-third of obese patients who have gastric surgery develop gallstones. Nearly one in three develop nutritional deficiencies. Patients could also be at risk for anemia, osteoporosis and metabolic bone disease. However, these side effects can be avoided with the proper amount of vitamin and mineral supplements. Up to 20 percent of patients who undergo the operation will require follow-up surgeries to correct complications. Common problems include abdominal hernias, breakdown of the staple line and stretched stomach outlets. There’s rapid regain of weight and all sorts of medical problems. From vitamin deficiencies to constant illness, stomach upsets, diarrhea, fatigue and horrible wound infections. Many people don’t want to admit they’ve had problems because they’re so happy to be thin; â€Å"People who have had the surgery the past couple of years are in a honeymoon state†, states Guthrie, Catherine. The author of â€Å"Bariatric Surgery: A Radical Obesity Fix. They is so thrilled to be thin. They believe being thin at all costs is more important than their own lives. Even if the patients have problems                                                  although these are some complications, most patients undergo only one surgery and there's an 85 percent success rate.
Friday, October 11, 2019
Prediction of Stock Market Indices
Prediction of Stock Market Indices-Using SAS Authorâ€â€B. Siddhartha Reddy Abstract The SAS © System has a powerful suite of tools for analyzing and forecasting data taken over a selected time period. The paper concentrates more on Stock Market (NSE-Nifty, India) & its prediction, by and large a risky venture. Knowledgeable investors base their predictions either on the basis of Fundamental Analysis, or Technical Analysis, or both. But most of the investors rely on the tips given by the experts for Stock Market Predictions.However there are many such models available such as Interrupted Time Series, Auto Regression (AR), Exponential Smoothening, Moving Average (MA), and Distributed Lags Analysis. The procedures FORECAST, ARIMA process will be illustrated. analysis, traditional time series analysis and machine learning methods. The analyzing and predicting of the indices is in one line-To reap returns while investing on the index derivatives, Index derivatives provide in vestors the exposure to price movements of entire indices through a single futures or options contract.Using index options, a very interesting kind of â€Å"portfolio insurance†can be obtained, whereby an investor gets paid only if the market index drops. If one does not want to bear index fluctuations in the coming weeks, then the index futures or index options can be used to reduce (or even eliminate) the consequent index exposure. This is far more convenient than distress selling of the underlying equity in the portfolio. Thus, such prediction of indices would help the investor to play safe in the dynamic volatile market arena. Analyzing What?Analyzing the indices as in NIFTY MIDCAP 50, one can determine various trends the market has seen on day-to-day basis-the process which includes determining the trends underneath the data series (at a stretch of 13 years from 19972010) brought down from various secondary sources. Moreover, these trends can be used to identify the pat terns in the series and thus laying the foundation for forecasting adopting a couple of iterative processes which will be explained in the following sections. Details of the data: Observations-3282, Type-Daily Tools used: SAS © and Eviews. II.DATA FEATURES AND EXAMPLE The first step in time series analysis, or any good statistical analysis for that matter, is to plot the data. However, unless the user knows what to look for in the plots this exercise is futile. Features of interest usually include: Trend – an overall long term upward or downward movement in the data. Do we handle this by differencing the data or fitting a low order polynomial in time? Seasonality – a component of the series repeats periodically, for example, retail sales have a tendency to be high around November and December and lower near the first of the year.Do we look at seasonal differences or put in seasonal â€Å"indicator variables†? Keywords forecasting, prediction, stock mar ket prediction Time series analysis. I. INTRODUCTION Stock market is the market for securities where organized issuance and trading of Stocks takes place either through exchanges or over-the-counter in electronic or physical form. It plays an important role in channelizing capital from the investors to the business houses, which consequently leads to the availability of funds for business expansion.Determination of stock price considers that market is supreme and it discounts everything (economical, political and all related factors). It presumes that all the investors behave rationally and the value of the asset is estimated based on future expectations. Hence, with every new information, the future expectation of the market is liable to change and consequently the stock prices. As the new information is erratic in nature so it influences the price in a random way. The purpose of this trend analysis is to enable the organizations/individuals improve their knack of trading their ind ex options/futures in the available markets (NSE, BSE).The SAS technology helps the organization/individual to speed up the process of investing in this second’s market (changing over a period of seconds) and timely reducing the loss at all the levels in a trading process thus leveraging their portfolios. Why Analyze? Stock Market Investments are subjected to market risks and the returns are variable in nature because it is an uncertain existence. Hence Stock Market Prediction is not a guaranteed one. It is based on certain analyses linked to the Macro & Micro economic factors or variables such as demand & supply.There are certain other analyses available such as fundamental Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email protected] com Page | 1 Variability – is the variation additive or multiplicative (in which case we might want to analyze the logarithms of the data). Special events – was there a stri ke sometime during the period? Does the time period include the dotcom bubble and the recession in 2008? Is there an effect of the same or some other impingements?The features of the data determine which procedures are appropriate and identify those that are not appropriate. There are statistical checks available in the system for deciding, for example, the best approach for modeling the trend. As an example, Fig 1 shows the change in the Index values of NIFTY MIDCAP 50 in INDIA. While not exactly steady, we can see an overall increase/decrease in market with time. If we are thinking in terms of polynomials, it seems that at least a cubic polynomial might be needed to approximate the curvature in the historic data plot.The flexibility of high degree polynomials allows them to fit historic data well, but becomes a liability in forecasting in that such polynomials can, by their inherent flexibility, produce unreasonable increases or decreases as they are projected out into the future. Having checked with the seasonality and stationary test of the data, the logarithmic value of the data CLOSE (closing point of NIFTY) is taken and rechecked for the stationary test. If the data is a stationary, then the data is ready to model into a time series. The stationarity tests are done by using the Time Series Analysis in SAS, preferably The Fullers Test. Fig. Log Transformed Flows (Data Series: Obs – 3282 Type – Daily) The accuracy of the above forecast shown in fig 2 can be viewed in the fig 3 which shows the difference of the actual values and the predicted values of the market by considering the entire data of 13years at once and later on the same difference in case of the splitted graph. Fig 3 shows the statistics of differences in forecasting of the data: the graph (trend) with split and without split. Fig. 3 Differencing of Forecasted Data with Split & Without Split Thus, from Fig 3 it is evident that the data series has to be split as per the trends an d seasonality available.Having inspected the trends available in the above data series, it is found that there are various trends in the market index (closing) and had resulted in the 10 splits. The entire project has been verified while considering each and every split that shows some or the other trend and/or the impact of global impacts such as the Dotcom bubble and followed by the Recession in the year of 2008. The above impingements referring the dotcom bubble and recession are clearly observed globally and their impacts on the Indian Market are analyzed and assessed.It can be inferred that though Indian markets have shown a slight drift in its market during the above impacts, the overall effect of the recession on India is far negligible compared to the other developed countries (in reference to the BPO sector: India at its best) and we can say India along with other Pan-Asia countries have stood back from such wallops. III. RELATED WORK The Time Series Prediction analyzes his toric data and attempts to approximate future values of a time series as a linear combination of these historic data.In econometrics there are two basic types of time series forecasting: univariate (simple regression) and multivariate (multivariate regression). These types of regression models are the most common tools used in econometrics to predict time series. The way they are applied in practice is that firstly a set of factors that influence Fig. 2 Log Transformed Forecast Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email protected] com Page | 2 (or more specific is assumed that influence) the series under prediction is identified.These factors are the explanatory variables xi of the prediction model. Methodology: The methodology includes ? Collecting the Secondary data from the market sources such as National Stock Exchange (Nifty). ? Checking the seasonality in the data series (if any) and minimizing the same for an ac curate prediction. ? Claiming the data series to be precise – i. e. checking whether the data series obtained is stationary and raising the steps to make it a stationary series. Having checked with the stationarity, the data would be crisp and apparently ready to fetch a good forecast. Subjecting the resultant series into various models such as AR, MA etc. ? Forecasting the index and plotting the change in behavior of the market indices which is a real time analysis. This will help analysts/investors to make good and accurate investment decisions. Limitations: ? Access to the market’s real time data would be time variant and a slight change in the market may change the trend. ? Time series forecasting heavily depends upon the availability of the data. Long time series give the flexibility of verifying alternative models and choose the best. Exact modeling needs lots of experience and trend identification will be heavily depend upon this experience. ? Though the study g ives a trend analysis it might not work in a uniform way for all the investors, therefore the behavior of the investor also plays a vital role in the modeling. ? The resultant analysis may work only for a specific period and may always subject to change depend on other externalities which will impact the economy of the country. ? Limited time may or may not fetch good results in implementation of the analysis since share market cannot be cracked in the real time. Fig. Forecasting System The Model Building and The Forecasting Process IV. PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS The Performance analysis is been considered for the 10th split of the above data series since the entire paper concentrates on the Real-Time analysis of the NIFTY market, while comparing the predicted values with that of the Real-Time Index values and the same difference of Prediction is shown in the below Excel table. Fig 5 shows the graph (LCLOSE) for a time period of July 09 – Feb 10 and is not stationary. It can be det ermined by just viewing its trend and moreover the data is not moving in and out of the MEAN at equal intervals.However, the series clearly shows the trend with a non-stationary series. Such a trend does require a differencing while fitting into the model. Fig. 5 Log Transformed Close Values (LCLOSE) Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email protected] com Page | 3 The stationary series (ref fig 5) is best fitted into the AR Model (Auto Regressive Model) and is fitted for eight lags. Fig 5 shows AR (8, 1) since the parameter estimates show that: The probability is 0. 221 which says that the series (LCLOSE) is more significant at lag 8 and the coefficient of the standard error is almost zero (0. 0839) as obtained during the evaluation of the above model leading to the best fit than any other model. Fig 6 shows the statistics of fit of LCLOSE graph with RSquare as 0. 961 which says that the series is been fitted into th e model with the 96. 1% of confidence with the adjusted R-Square of 0. 958 (almost same) and with the mean absolute error being almost zero thus leading to the best fit. Fig. 6 Statistics of Fit Fig. 8 Predictions and Data OverlaidThe predictions of LCLOSE in fig 8 are listed for the next 6 days: 7. 8190 to 7. 8274 are the forecasted values of the NIFTY closing for the dates above 24th of Feb 2010 that is for the real time of the future. These values are checked with the real time closing values of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 on the following days. Fig 9 shows the predicted values and real time values of the same. Fig. 9 Predicted Vs Real Time Values The reason for this best fit of almost 96. 1% is due to the upward trend with the elevation of the data series which could make the prediction more accurate as it is a stationary.Fig. 7 96. 1% Confidence Interval Forecast (LCLOSE) From fig 9 it is evident that the predicted value of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 as 7. 8190 and can be arrived at 2487. 416 (anti-log of Predicted) which has just 4. 2167 points of difference with the real time i. e. 2483. 20 which is a secondary data downloaded from the NSE site. The real time values for the rest of the periods are written manually and the difference is checked accordingly. V. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ? The above forecasts of the time series models clearly show the behavior pattern of the market (NIFTY MIDCAP 50) in the near future.One may or may not find a difference in the values of predicted to that of the real time. Fig 7 is obtained on this day of 24th Mar 2010 (the updated data) and the values of the above forecasted graph are fed into the excel sheet to calculate the anti-log of the same in order to come up with the predicted values for the NIFTY closing. ? There is always a possibility of certain standard errors in case of the time series analysis which may be found due to the absence of the best fit models than which are fitted above. Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA.Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email protected] com Page | 4 ? Such and such above models namely AR do have some limitations which would result in an inaccurate prediction since these predicted values may sometimes have a huge difference with that of the real time values caused due to the external factors. These external factors can be: 1. 2. Policies implemented by the GOVERNMENT OF INDIA. Variation in the rates such as ? Interest Rates. ? Fluctuations of Indian Rupee with the impact of other currencies. ? Foreign Exchange Rates etc. Unforeseen issues such as : ?A sudden decline in the foreign markets. ? A variation in the chain of demand and supply. ? Sudden attack by the outlaws. 3. ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to take this opportunity to thank Prof. Prashobhan Palakkeel and Prof. Veena Bhat (faculties, IBS Bangalore) for their assistance in the concepts of Business Intelligence and statistical tools used in this research namely SAS 9. 1 & Eviews 6. 0; their ceaseless support has resulted in such a vulnerable & successful explore. This research paper would not been possible without the untiring support provided by my family and friends.The input and guidance provided by other faculties have been invaluable. I would like to extent my gratitude to all these people. REFERENCES [1] www. nse-india. com (NSE National Stock Exchange, India) as a secondary data source for Nifty daily. [2] http://www. statsoft. com/textbook/time-series-analysis/ [3] http:/webspace. qmul. ac. uk/dsgpollock/public_html/courses /tseries/1trends. pdf [4] www. nse-india. com/content/fo/fo_NIFTYMIDCAP50. htm [5] Brocklebank, J. C. and D. A. Dickey (2003) SAS for Forecasting Time Series, SAS Institute, Cary, N.C. [6] http://nseguide. com/press-releases/nse-index-weightsbased-on-nse-daily-bhav-copy/ [7] http://www. hkbu. edu. hk/~billhung/econ3600/application/a pp03/app03. html [8] http://webspace. qmul. ac. uk/dsgpollock/public_html/course s/tseries/8idntify. pdf [9] http://www. duke. edu/~rnau/411arim. htm â€Å"Model Selection is seldom Precise in Time Series modeling, because it’s An Art more Than a Science†Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email protected] com Page | 5
Thursday, October 10, 2019
Marketing Strategy at Ikea Essay
Synopsis The case study is to discuss about the different strategy used by IKEA to approach their customers. It is also talking about the localization concept from a global company based on the cultural demand from different countries worldwide. IKEA is also famous for their less expensive furniture, has some other strategies to â€Å"reach†the customers based on their needs. 4 Ps concept plays a very important role on IKEA’s success besides the way of shopping which is differ from all other their competitor. Company Background 1920s At the age of five Ingvar Kamprad starts selling matches to his next door neighbors and by the time he is seven, he starts selling to further neighborhood, using his bicycle. He buy matches in huge numbers cheap and re-sell them individually at a very low price but still make a good profit. From selling matches he expands to selling flower seeds, greeting cards, Christmas tree decorations, and later pencils and ball-point pens. 1940s-1950s The roots of a furniture dealer, Ingvar Kamprad is entrepreneurial in developing IKEA into a furniture retailer. This period sees the exploration of furniture design, self assembly, advertising, the use of a catalogue and a showroom to reach the many people. 1960s-1970s The IKEA concept starts to take place. New IKEA stores opened and hero products are developed such as POÄNG, KLIPPAN and BILLY bookcase. It is a time where concept takes shape and is documented in Ingvar Kamprad’s The Testament of a Furniture Dealer. 1980s IKEA expands dramatically into new markets such as USA, Italy, France and the UK. More IKEA classics arrive such as LACK and MOMENT. IKEA begins to take the form of today’s modern IKEA. 1990s IKEA grows more by introducing Children’s IKEA and the focus is on home furnishing solutions to meet the needs of families with children. The IKEA Group is formed and responsibility for people and the environment is seen as a prerequisite for doing good business. 2000s IKEA expands into new markets such as Japan and Russia. Everything for the bedroom and kitchen is explored and presented in coordinated furnishing solutions. This period also sees the successes of several partnerships regarding social and environmental projects. IKEA’s Vision and Business Idea IKEA’s vision is to create a better everyday life for the many people. Their business idea supports this vision by offering a wide range of well-designed, functional home furnishing products at prices so low that as many people as possible will be able to afford them. IKEA’s mission: People have very thin wallet. We should take care of their interests. IKEA’s Product RangeIngvar Kamprad The IKEA product range focuses on good design and function at a low price. It offers home furnishing solutions for every room in the home. It has something for the romantic at heart, the minimalist and everyone in between. It is coordinated so that no matter which style you prefer our designers and product developers work hard to ensure that our products meet your day-to-day needs and eliminates the unnecessary. IKEA’s Low Prices Low prices are the cornerstone of the IKEA vision and our business idea. The basic thinking behind all IKEA products is that low prices make well-designed, functional home furnishings available to everyone. We are constantly trying to do everything a little better, a little simpler, more efficiently and always cost-effectively. A better everyday life We have taken the straightforward approach to the furniture business, by starting with developing furniture with the price tag in mind. This is the IKEA way, to maximize the use of raw materials in order to fulfill people’s needs and preferences by offering quality products at an affordable price. Social & Environmental Responsibility In 2004, IKEA published their first Social and Environmental Responsibility report. IKEA believes good society is good for IKEA with the passionate to create successful business in a responsible manner. That’s the reason sustainability is very important for IKEA’s strategic direction. Prioritizing sustainability drives further innovation and development. Managing resources with new ways to do things and developing skill set and expertise are very important in driving IKEA’s business. As a company with low price product must be a low cost company which include earth’s limited resources usage in a good manner. IKEA has made tremendous and valuable contribution across the world. Forests of Siberia, cotton fields of India, homes in New York, Lisbon and Shanghai are good examples of sustainability. IKEA blue bags are big, sturdy and sustainable. Out with plastic bags! In with reusable bags! SWOT analysis IKEAs objectives are easily achieved via their SWOT analysis and it is a strategic planning tool too. It helps the business to focus on key issues. SWOT is the first step of planning based on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats involved in a business. Strengths and weaknesses are internal aspects and it is within the control of the business. They may refer to aspects of marketing, finance, manufacturing or organization. Opportunities and threats are external factors and they are outside the control of the business. These may include the environment, the economic situation, social changes or technological advances, such as the internet. Strengths Strengths could include a company’s specialist marketing expertise or its location. IKEA’s strengths include: a.Low cost structure At any economic situation, IKEA able to maintain the profit margin due to their â€Å"affordable†products. IKEA buy the products in bulk from suppliers with a lower price and get their customers to assemble the product by themselves, which gives customer a lower price product. Their long term partnership with their suppliers also ensures they have access to high quality material at reasonable prices. Their furniture is stylish, modern and functional. The company’s low cost structure is able to meet the customers’ need at any point of economic condition. b.Sustainability IKEA’s cost effective and Social & Environmental Responsibility concept is a unique strength of IKEA compare to their other competitors. IKEA use renewable, reusable and recycled materials as much as possible. Example, IKEA’s catalogues are printed in chlorine-free paper and contain at least 10% to 15% post consumer waste. All of their products come in cardboard, compact packaging for easy use and recyclability. These make IKEA outstanding from their competitors. Opportunities A business uses its strengths to take advantage of the opportunities that arise. IKEA believes that its environmentally focused business conduct will result in good returns even in a price sensitive market. Some of the opportunities that IKEA takes advantage of through its sustainability agenda are: a.IKEA can further invest on the â€Å"go green†movement and IKEA’s customers’ desire to have less of an impact on the environment. This concept is also denoting the demand for cheaper and greener products. b.Sustainability can be further maintained by offer tips and ideas online for customers to create a more sustainable home in any part of the world. It can also help to reduce carbon footprint by packaging in less material. . Weaknesses and threats Weaknesses IKEA has to acknowledge its weaknesses in order to improve and manage them. This can play a key role in helping it to set objectives and develop new strategies. IKEA’s weaknesses may include: a.The size IKEA is a warehouse style shopping centre. Because of their huge size, there are not enough people in a smaller region to maintain a store at that size. Also, IKEA find it difficult to penetrate a small market because they offer only home furnishing. Unlikely company like Target offer home furnishing besides clothing, groceries and also technology. b.The need for low cost products. This needs to be balanced against producing good quality products too. They are also need to differentiate itself and its products from other competitors. IKEA believes there is no compromise between being able to offer good quality products and low prices. c.Communication Communication or updates on their environmental activities with its consumers and stakeholders must be consistent and up to date. IKEA produces publications in print and online (for example ‘People and the Environment’) and carries out major TV and radio campaigns to enable the business to communicate with different target audiences. Threats If a company is aware of possible external threats, it can plan to counteract them. By generating new ideas, IKEA can use a particular strength to defend against threats in the market. Threats to IKEA may stem from: a.Competition More competitors are now entering the low price household and furnishings markets. Example Home Depot is the 2nd largest retailer in the world and also a huge threat for IKEA. Home Depot also provides hardware, lumber, kitchen appliances, furniture and many other products. IKEA needs to reinforce its unique qualities to compete with this kind of â€Å"giants†. Question 1 – What are some of the things IKEA is doing right to reach consumers in different markets? What else could it be doing? IKEA Group operating 301 stores in 41 countries worldwide (IKEA statistics 2012) including franchisees. IKEA’s marketing strategy starts with their business concept as stated in IKEA’s vision statement: The IKEA vision is to create a better everyday life for the many people. We make this possible by offering a wide range of well-designed, functional home furnishing product at prices so low that as many people as possible can afford them. (IKEA Corporate Website) IKEA has a principle to work in the same way in every country. This standardized approach provides operational advantages besides some disadvantages due to the different markets. Based on the marketing mix which starts with product strategy, product covers more than the physical goods that a company wants to sell. It is the goods & service combination that a company offers to the target market. Thus, IKEA offers a whole range of product with the pricing which supposed to be the same (95%) with very small adaptations for all countries and in all stores worldwide. The pricing of products are comparatively low to what the consumers can find in a competing store. The basic aim of IKEA is to deliver high value at a low price. IKEA has been cutting price in most of the countries. IKEA is also source it’s products from various companies all over the world rather than a small number of suppliers like many of the retailers do. IKEA has 1,300 suppliers from 53 countries, who can supply products as per local taste based on their needs. Most of the IKEA stores are placed out of city centre, out of town location due to a lower land cost and traffic access. Exceptional for UK stores (Coventry – 2007 & Southampton – 2009) located in city centre as a response to UK government restrictions blocking retail establishment outside city centers. It is a seven floors store with a different flow compare to other IKEA stores. Normally the stores will be 2 floors with a car parking availability and also comes with restaurants. The restaurants sell foods according to the local taste and also it opens daily before the rest of the stores. Example in Canada, breakfast includes eggs, sausage, and hash browns and various add-ons like bacon and pancakes at additional costs. In the United States, the local variation serves scrambled eggs, bacon, country potatoes and choice of Swedish pancakes or French toast sticks. The selling environment and service of IKEA stores are also adjusted to fit with local taste. Example like DIY concept is fully accepted by Sweden and UK where the consumers believe that’s the price they pay for the low prices products. Whereby in China, DIY concept is new to them because of the cheap labor and the prices are also not perceived as generally low. Q1.1What else could it be doing? 1.Developing competitive advantage – because IKEA has a low cost structure, they should be able to expand online market easily without incurring too much additional costs. IKEA also should look at an expansion to the West Coast, particularly California. Also, expansion into regions with enough people to sustain a store of their size. 2.Developing a strategic focus – going online is not only reaching potential customers in less populated area, it is also will help customers to catch up with competitors. Besides that, younger people (Gen Y) willing to buy online more compare to the older people. Question 2 – IKEA has essentially changed the way people shop for furniture. Discuss the pros and cons of this strategy. Factors that encourage customer’s choice of visit to IKEA – Pros i.Social motives for the customer – the shoppers go in group since the outlet is huge and it will take time to shop. Also the location is far from city. It’s a kind of short trip instead of shop-visit which consume a lot of time and they prefer to go in a group (friends or family). ii.Availability of other services and amenities – Restaurants (food and beverages) and baby-sitting services within the stores which gives a greater convenient to all customer. Parking is also not an issue since most of the stores located far from the city. iii.Information availability – online info is more useful. Customers can surf online catalogues in various languages for inspiration and planning purpose before go to the store. This will also help them to catch up with their competitors. Younger generation will be also attracted with this online concept because they are the IT savvy generation compare to the older generation who is still a little â€Å"doubt†about buying online. iv.Access – Operating hours are good. Long hours on weekend very helpful for those customers work odd hours and also busy on weekdays. v.Speed of delivery – no waiting time as they go and pick up their products. Factors that discourage customer’s choice of visit to IKEA – Cons i.Design – the color and bulbs used make the environment dull. Less store assistants and the routes are very long also make customers not really prefer to shop in IKEA. Customers feel bored when they are required to follow one special route instead go direct to the product that they want to purchase. ii.Product availability – difficult to find, stored somewhere else, arrange in an illogical order. Also, ONLY furniture available in IKEA unlikely Home Depot provides all kind of products / items beside furniture. iii.Amount of shopping time  ¬Ã¢â‚¬â€œ it is time consuming. The route makes them to go through all products and to get the product seen before must go a big turn again. Also, customers ended up buying more than planned as going thru all the display products. iv.Assemble yourself – most of the IKEA products are need to be assembled by customers themselves. If you’re a handyman, or someone experienced with tools, it is fine. But for the normal men or even women, assembling some pieces might be slightly difficult. Also it can be ended up doing something wrong. Conclusion In conclusion, IKEA is a good place to shop furniture with a lot of different designs. Less expensive furniture made IKEA grow consistently around the world. IKEA has their own way of sustaining their business for decades. The overall identity of IKEA is based in Smà ¥land, historical and thrift are strong characteristics of the region and its people. All IKEA policies live up to this standard from the products that they sell. Exhibit 1 – Facts & Figures FY2011 References 1.The Testament of a Furniture Dealer – A Little IKEA Dictionary by Ingvar Kamprad (founder). Published by Inter IKEA Systems B.V. 2007 2.Standardized Marketing Strategies in Retailing? IKEA’s marketing Strategies in Sweden, the UK and China by Steve Burt, University of Stirling, 2008. 3.IKEA Facts and Figures -2011 http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_AU/pdf/yearly_summary/Welcome_inside_2011.pdf 4.Student Info – IKEA http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/press_room/student_info.html 5.The IKEA Experience – A case study on how different factors in retail environment affect customer experience by Rebecka Isaksson & Mirela Suljanovic. 6.History – IKEA http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/the_ikea_way/history/index.html 7.Introduction – SWOT analysis and sustainable business planning – IKEA case studies and information The Times 100 http://businesscasestudies.co.uk/ikea/swot-analysis-and-sustainable-business-planning/introduction.html 8.IKEA International A.S. History & Company Profile http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/ikea-international-a-s-history/ 9.Kerry Capell, â€Å"IKEA: How the Sweedish Retailer Became a Global Cult Brand,†BusinessWeek, November 14, 2005 10.IKEA group corporate site n.d., About the IKEA Group. Cited from (08.05.2009) http://193.108.42.168/?ID=25
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